THE REARMING OF GERMANY AND JAPAN

Nuclear Explosion

GERMANY

German Militarisation

In an extensive analysis by Dmitry Medvedev (Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and former President of Russia), he refers to Germany under the leadership of Chancellor Friedrich Merz as aiming to “Revise the disappointing outcomes of World War II” with political leaders in Germany referring to the “virtual inevitability of a military clash with Russia by 2029”. The German government is working to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest army, with plans to raise the strength of its active-duty servicemen and reservists from 181,000 to 460,000. With this and more, Germany’s pacifism has been cast aside.

Germany is also considering acquiring nuclear weapons aimed at “deterring Moscow’s aggressive policy in Europe”. According to Medvedev, “What Germany’s grandparents failed to accomplish in 1945, their grandchildren are determined to achieve in the 21^st century”.

For Medvedev, Russia’s main task is to prevent the repetition of the tragedy of 1941 by ensuring that Russia’s Armed Forces are kept in a state of permanent combat readiness. If the most dreadful scenario comes to pass, there is a real risk of mutual destruction and the end of European civilisation. Berlin has two options. The first is war while the second is a return to sobriety, accompanied by a fundamental reorientation of its foreign policy through dialogue.[i]

The Weimar Republic

The Weimar city which is near the former Buchenwald concentration camp is back in the news. The new crisis in Germany resembles that which engulfed the Weimar Republic a century ago. Under the 1919 Treaty of Versailles, Germany committed never to go to war although, on the political far-right there remained strong resentment against the Treaty. The Great Depression of 1929 led to a surge in unemployment and in January 1933, President Hindenburg appointed Adolf Hitler as Chancellor. Later that year Hitler was effectively granted new powers to act outside parliamentary control, bringing about the swift collapse of democracy and the creation of a one-party dictatorship. The Nazis governed Germany until the end of World War II in 1945.

Merz Loosing Support

Since taking office in May 2025, Chancellor Merz has accelerated Germany’s rearmament drive, pledging to make the “Bundeswehr Europe’s strongest” conventional army, citing “A growing Russian threat” which is dismissed by President Putin as “nonsense”. However, by April 2026 the disapproval rating of Merz had climbed to 76% with only 19% of Germans being satisfied with his performance. On 8 June 2026 several thousand demonstrators took to the streets of Berlin calling for the resignation of Merz carrying placards with slogans such as “Not my Chancellor” and “Merz must go”. In a recent public opinion survey,  Merz was named as the world’s most unpopular political leader and senior figures in Germany are reported to be discussing the possible ousting of Merz due to his record-low approval ratings.[ii]

Despite Berlin’s insistence that it deserves a permanent seat on the UN Security Council (UNSC), for the first time in history, Germany failed on 3 June to win even a temporary seat on the UNSC, losing to Portugal and Austria, with the Alternative for Germany leader Alice Weidel saying that Merz had led Germany from “One embarrassment to the next”.

Despite the German Foreign Minister Wadephul saying that Germany’s support for Israel may have alienated many at the UN, Wadephul also said it was Germany’s “Historic responsibility” to atone for the Holocaust. However, in April 2026 Merz criticised the military conflict against Iran, led by the US and Israel, describing it as a “completely unnecessary war”. Attacks on Jews in Germany are today said to pervade the country with persistently high levels of anti-Semitism. The threat to Jewish life is described as “Worse than at any time since the Holocaust” while anti-Semitism is being increasingly normalised across German society. All this while Germany aims to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest army.[iii]

JAPAN

The Sanae Takaichi Victory

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader, Sanae Takaichi was elected Prime Minister on 21 October 2025 becoming Japan’s first female leader. However, only three months into her tenure, she called a snap election with a view to securing a parliamentary majority to pass her legislative agenda. It was a gamble, but it paid off with the LDP securing a landslide victory on 8 February 2026 with 316 out of 465 seats (68%) giving Takaichi an outright majority. It was the first time since the Second World War that any party in Japan has won a two third majority in its own right.

Takaichi aims to reverse Article 9 of Japan’s postwar Constitution which allows only for self defence but not a traditional military. However, revising the postwar pacifist  Constitution requires a two thirds approval in both chambers of the Diet, followed by ratification in a national referendum. Revising the Constitution remains difficult with the next Upper House election not due until 2028.[iv]

Japan’s Pacifist Constitution

For decades, Japan has adhered to a pacifist policy which was imposed by the victorious Allies after World War II. However, Takaichi is now embracing  rearmament and re-militarisation and the West is actively encouraging  the erosion of Japan’s post-war pacifist Constitution and its return to great power status. This is partly a consequence of what Japan sees as both “Chinese assertiveness” and waning confidence in America’s security guarantees.

In its largest military buildup since World War II, Japan is committed to almost doubling its defence budget from $35 billion to $60 million between 2022 and 2027. Japan is today developing a sixth generation stealth fighter jointly with Italy and the UK and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is in the process of building a new hypersonic glide vehicle. This is remarkable having regard to Japan’s military history and Imperial Japan’s wartime atrocities involving massacres, forced labour and sexual slavery which has left deep scars across the region which reverberate to this day [v]

The China Threat

Sino-Japanese diplomatic ties began to deteriorate in November 2025 when Takaichi remarked that a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan could pose an “Existential threat” to Japan, allowing it to exercise the right to collective self-defense. Takaichi considers China to be the most disruptive threat and believes that Japan needs a broader coalition of partnerships across Asia and Europe with American power at the centre as the only viable way to counter China’s coercion. However, of greater concern for Takaichi is the deepening US-China relations bringing a weakening of the Trump administration’s engagement in East Asia.[vi]

China’s Colonel Chen Xi has described Japan’s accelerating re-militarisation as turning the country into a “powder keg”.

Resurgent Japan

The Yasukuni Shrine was founded in 1869 to honour those who died fighting for the Japanese Emperor and country. Today, Yasukuni is controversial as it also enshrines many convicted World War II criminals. Takaichi regularly pays respects at the shrine as does her defence Minister who is currently presiding over Japan’s  re-militarisation which includes the possible development of nuclear weapons. While Germany has acknowledged its war guilt and made this part of its culture, Japan continues to deny  its war guilt. A re-armed Japan could easily become a revanchist nation, seeking a return to its former glory and greatness.[vii] 

Takaichi’s supporters say Japan needs a strong military to counter China and North Korea and Japan is no longer looking on from the sidelines but is increasingly willing to operate alongside Southeast Asian partners in the Indo-Pacific. China contends that this reflects a return to Japan’s World War II militarism when it committed horrendous crimes and inflicted untold suffering. China warns the international community to stay on high alert to prevent the rise of Japanese militarism.[viii]

Conclusion

Both Germany and Japan aim to shrug off their pacifist status. The rise of Germany with the aim of making the Bundeswehr Europe’s strongest conventional army, and of Japan’s Takaichi embracing rearmament and re-militarisation gives rise to  the real risk of their bringing about the very consequences which they aim to avoid, namely another global war. That would be even more threatening should either or both become nuclear powers.

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

[i] RT, Germany's new militarisation: revival of blatant revanchism -7 May 2026

[ii] RT, Metz’s party mulls dumping him, 27 May 2026

[iii] Times of Israel, anti-Semitism in Germany worse than any time since the Holocaust – 22 May 2026

[iv] The Interpreter, Takaichi’s snap election delivers LDP landslide – 11 February 2026

[v] Foreign Affairs, Return of Japanese Hard Power – 5 May 2026

[vi] Nikkei Asia, Japan eyes bolstered defence of Pacific sea lanes – 17 April 2026

[vii] South China Morning Post, A resurgent Japan should scare everyone – 3 May 2026

[viii] CGTN, China urges high alert over Japanese neo-militarism 1 June 2026