THE US AND ISRAEL AT WAR WITH IRAN – AGAIN

A History of Terror 

The world watched in horror on 11 September 2001 as a plane hurtled into the World Trade Centre in New York, killing 3,000, reviving memories of the day in 1972 when Black September broke into Munich’s Olympic Village and murdered 11 Israeli athletes and coaches. There is no end to the carnage. The Bali bombing in October 2002, by Jamaah Islamiah, resulted in the slaughter of 202 holidaymakers including 88 Australians.  

In January 2015, Charlie Hebdo employees were targeted by two French born Muslim brothers (members of Al Qaeda), murdering 12 and injuring 11. Several other terrorist attacks across France followed. In 2017 a suicide bomber detonated a bomb in the Manchester Arena in Britain, killing 22 people attending a concert. Then, in March 2024 gunmen stormed a Moscow concert Hall killing 145 people and injuring more than 500. The Islamic State group (IS) claimed responsibility.

On 14 December 2025, 15 Jews were murdered while attending a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach. This followed the slaughter of Jews in Israel on 7 October 2023, the worst such attack since the Holocaust. IS and Al Qaeda have reemerged, with the West in their sights.

All of these attacks, and more can be traced back to the Iranian regime.[i]

The US and Israil go to War Against Iran, Once Again

Israel and the US have demanded that Iran dismantle its nuclear program and end its support for militant groups including Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, but Iran has displayed no intention of complying and on 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes targeting Iran’s military assets, nuclear facilities, and its top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

For Israel, the Iranian threat is existential. Israel cannot accept Iran having nuclear capabilities controlled by a regime which openly calls for the destruction of Israel. The only way to achieve safety for Israel, is to facilitate and to enable the Iranian people to bring regime change and to have a government which is willing to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, Washington has never committed the resources necessary to bring regime change to Iran and the Trump administration appears unwilling to take on the burden of a prolonged Gulf war.

Multiple reports now suggest that the Trump administration believes a nuclear deal is unlikely and may not be achievable and the US could settle for a deal in which Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz open, but preserves its nuclear aims. Without a long-term US commitment to provide Israel with the support it needs to preserve the gains of the war so far, Israel may be forced to act alone.[ii]

A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)

In early April 2026, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire after receiving a 10 point plan from Iran which appeared to be a workable basis for negotiation. However, the next day Tehran released a framework which included numerous items which were nonstarters for the US, including the right to enrich uranium.

Then, on 17 June 2026 the US and Iran signed an MOU which was intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,  and to suspend the war for 60 days during which period Iran was required to allow free passage of commercial vessels through the Strait. However, the MOU did not resolve the issues which produced the crisis in the first place, in particular whether Iran would be permitted to continue enriching uranium, the fate of its stockpile of enriched uranium, and the scope of international inspections. 

Despite the MOU, military action continued around the Strait, putting a strain on the ceasefire and Hezbollah vowed to keep fighting Israel. The back-and-forth attacks which followed added pressure to the preliminary peace deal.[iii]

Trump demanded that Iran stop its proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, threatening that, “If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!” However, the continued fighting led Iran to announce that it had closed the waterway even though Trump had warned, “You close it, and you won’t have a country!” Trump also said the US might be forced to “militarily complete the job” and if that happened, “The Islamic Republic of Iran would no longer exist”. Trump’s threats were counterproductive and led Iran to suspend talks.

The MOU Goes Up in Smoke 

On 7 July Iran attacked three cargo ships which sailed close to the coast of Oman, contrary to Iran’s directions that all shipping in the Straight was required to follow Iran’s map. In response to that attack, the US launched attacks on more than 80 Iranian targets including its air defence systems, command and control networks, and antiship missile sites. The US also revoked its sanctions waiver on Iran which had allowed Tehran to sell oil - the only lifeline Iran had to sustain its economy.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded by launching retaliatory strikes on US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Trump responded saying the MOU was “effectively over”. In an angry tirade Trump referred to the Iranian leadership as “scum” adding, “They’re sick, there’s something wrong with them”. His remarks were grossly inappropriate, childish and plainly unhelpful. Iran’s Foreign Minister responded,  “The US regime, having reneged on its commitments, bears responsibility for the dangerous consequences of this escalation”.[iv]

Despite Trump’s insults and threats, there remained a glaring absence of any strategy, planning, direction or clear aim on the part of the US President.

Israeli Settlers

More than 700,000 Israeli settlers reside in the West Bank and East Jerusalem although most of the international community considers these settlements to be illegal. However, Israel’s far right Minister, Smotrich’s goal is to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state and Israel’s National Security Minister, Ben Gvir’s call to “burn all of Lebanon” has sparked international condemnation. In addition,  Israel’s Defence Minister, Katz warned that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (the son of Ali Khamenei who succeeded his father) was “marked for death”. These remarks did not serve Israel’s interests and if anything, have harmed its international standing, leading Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi to call on the US to “muzzle its pets in Tel Aviv” and prevent Israel from militarily threatening Iran.[v] 

Israel and its military campaign is becoming a defining issue for the US Democratic Party. A top Democrat, Adam Smith who described himself as a “strong supporter of Israel’s right to exist” was “critical of the Netanyahu government, especially its West Bank policies”. There is increasing international condemnation of the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, including among members of the Republican Party.[vi]

The Ali Khamenei Funeral

The first day of public morning for Ali Khamenei fell on 4 July 2026, coinciding with America’s celebration of the 250^th anniversary of its independence. As the coffin emerged in the square, the huge crowd erupted with cries for vengeance. Mourners chanted “Death to America and Death to Israel” and Iranian clerics were reported to have said that the killing of “The criminal American president” and “The wicked Prime Minister of the Zionist regime” was a religious duty, and “assassinating them must not be neglected under any circumstances”.[vii]  Iran and the US were due to resume peace talks after the six-day funeral ended but this was thrown into doubt by the ongoing attacks and counter attacks by both Iran and the US.

Conclusion

On 13 July 2026, Alexander Downer wrote in The Australian newspaper saying about Trump, “Drop the jaw-jaw and turn up the heat on the IRGC”. While Downer credited Trump for having the courage to take on Iran, Trump was unclear in articulating his war aims. He needs to make it clear that he would destroy Iran’s capacity to project power and would take action to terminate its nuclear weapons program. Downer criticised Trump for talking too much, saying his messages were “Contradictory and replete with exaggeration”. Trump needed to close the Strait of Hormuz to ensure a speedy and decisive military victory, not through an MOU but by the use of military might.

Downer reminded his readers that successful wartime leaders had shown a streak of ruthlessness in pursuit of victory and he mentioned, among others, Churchill and Roosevelt as well as Margaret Thatcher.  Instead, Trump appeared hesitant and he lacked the necessary ruthlessness. Downer emphasized that the war had to be prosecuted with a clarity of aims and ruthless implementation to achieve its objectives.[viii] 

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

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[i] Gemma Tognini, writing in The Australian – 27 June 2026

[ii] Foreign Affairs, How to save the US-Israel alliance – 1 July 2026

[iii] WSJ, Trump threat to militarily complete the job in Iran – 28 June 2026

[iv] Al Jazeera, Iran-US strikes resume. What does it mean for peace – 8 July 2026

[v] Times of Israel, If Trump’s Tel Aviv pets not controlled, Iran will school them -1 July 5, 2026

[vi] Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Military Danger of anti-Israel Panic – 1 July 2026

[vii] The Australian, Iran clerics call for assassination of Trump and Netanyahu – 1 July 5, 2026

[viii] Downer is the longest serving Minister for Foreign Affairs in Australian history having held the portfolio for nearly 12 years from March 1996 to December 2007.