OUR CHANGING WORLD

The  “Indispensable” Nation?

Talks at the end of WW II led to the establishment of a postwar economic order and the formation of the United Nations. After the Cold War ended in 1991, Washington ran the world and the international order seemed to depend upon US hyper-engagement. America was the “indispensable” nation. It has been the dominant force in the world for close on 80 years but, as the former head of the Australian defence Force, Admiral Chris Barrie recently remarked “I don’t consider America to be a reliable ally, as I used to”.

The invasion of Iraq following 11 September 2001 greatly eroded global trust in US hegemony and created room for rivals. When the global economy collapsed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, a sense of US vulnerability and decline began to emerge. 

President Trump has shattered the unity of the Western world by economically threatening American allies, and in much of the world today, there is a desire for a more equitable world order which does not feature the double standards of the Western-dominated system. A world in which American and Western power is more contained might not only end up being more peaceful, but also more prosperous and may also bring greater equality among nations.[i]

The End of the US Unipolar Moment

The greatest threat to the US-led order is not China, but rather the inability of US  to sustain that order particularly as US unilateralism has placed too great a burden on American shoulders.  

President Trump began his second term in office threatening to take control of Greenland and to take back the Panama Canal while withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accords and the World Health Organisation. Trump sent global markets into chaos when he announced his sweeping tariffs. He may well bring the period of US dominance to an unceremonious end. As John Adams, the second president of the US (1797-8001) wrote, “Democracy was just as vulnerable to vanity, pride, avarice and ambition as any other form of government, and a good deal less stable”. He added, “There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide”.[ii]

The American security umbrella is fraying and the post-WW II order is no longer assured. The era when US allies were content to rely on American protection is passing and other  states such as China, India and Russia are stepping into the breach. As Max Bergmann (director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program) wrote in May 2025, “Ultimately, the unipolar moment is gone”.[iii]

The West As We Knew It No Longer Exists

Central to Trump’s “America First” banner is the withdrawal of the US from its role as a guarantor of the international rules-based security and economic order, reducing US security guarantees while shifting defence burdens onto partner countries. In the words of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, “The West as we knew it no longer exists”.

As Stephen Walt (professor of international relations at Harvard university) wrote, “Breaking the rules can damage a country’s reputation and leave it worse off. Trump’s assault on the global order is especially damaging to the United States’ reputation. Americans may soon discover that much of the world is instead adhering to norms and rules made in Beijing, instead of the institutions, mostly US-centered, which have shaped much of the world for decades”.[iv] 

Loosening the US grip on global power is an essential first step towards a more just and balanced international order. For putting this process in motion, the world may owe Trump a measure of thanks![v] 

It would be difficult to imagine America’s unipolar era re-emerging, even after Trump’s time in office comes to an end.

Co-existence and Cooperation Among Nations

ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) creates space for dialogue and cooperation while preserving its autonomy, and encouraging engagement across civilisational lines. If the global community can embrace this approach, multipolarity need not be seen as a threat but rather as an opportunity. The post-American era need not mark the unravelling of global order but rather the rise of a more inclusive, resilient and balanced system which is not defined by dominance but rather by peaceful co-existence.[vi]

The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov (noting that China and India have reached an understanding regarding their border dispute) has expressed Moscow’s interest in restarting cooperation in the Russia, India, and China (RIC) format. Although India has continued to develop its cooperation with Western countries, New Delhi refrains from joining any formal alliances while at the same time maintaining strong relations with Russia.

The China, ASEAN and GCC Trilateral

On 27 May 2025 Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, hosted the inaugural Trilateral Summit involving China, ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The summit was attended by Chinese Premier, Li Qiang together with leaders from both ASEAN and the GCC. It was viewed by the participants as “a groundbreaking initiative” in cross-regional cooperation. Although there was no mention of the United States in joint statement issued at the end of the meeting, the parties acknowledged China’s “Critical role in promoting regional and global peace, stability, prosperity and sustainable development” as well as ASEAN’s centrality in regional affairs and the GCC’s pivotal role in the Middle East.

Participants recognised the need to strengthen confidence in a rules-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organisation at its core. Beijing proposed extending the existing China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to include the GCC which was welcomed. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim advanced a vision of intercultural dialogue between Confucian and Islamic civilisations which aligns with China’s Global Civilisation Initiative.[vii] 

The Arab States

Russia’s President Putin has invited members of the League of Arab States to participate in the first Russia-Arab Summit in October 2025. Russia views the Arab League as an important regional organization which plays a crucial role in maintaining peace, stability and security within the Arab world and beyond. Putin has expressed Russia’s interest in expanding multilateral cooperation with Arab countries based on principles of equality, mutual benefit, and respect for national sovereignty. At the same time, other regional leaders are strengthening their partnerships with China, India, Turkey, Russia and the Global South.

Saudi Arabia has emerged as a credible and neutral convener of high-stakes international dialogue, and Qatar and UAE play increasingly active diplomatic roles, maintaining balanced relations with both Russia and the West while continuing to advocate for political solutions and global stability. The League of Arab States shows a collective wish to strengthen multilateralism, uphold international law, and contribute to the creation of a more balanced and inclusive global governance system. These States are united in their belief that the unipolar era has ended and a more just, multipolar international order should emerge. Russia and the Arab world demonstrate the viability of this approach which is grounded in mutual respect, sovereign equality, and shared aspirations for stability and prosperity.[viii]

The United Nations Security Council

India has recently called for sweeping reforms in order to make the UN Security Council “fit for purpose” arguing that it should have more members from the currently under-represented regions. At present, and since its establishment 80 years ago, only five permanent members serve on the UN Security Council, China, France, Russia, the US, and the UK. There are growing calls for changes to ensure  a more equitable geographic representation.

The Ultimate Contest

Although the Trump presidency has raised challenges, US democracy was already being challenged long before Trump. Leading American voices such as Paul Volcker and Martin Wolf have warned that the US has become a “plutocracy” (a country governed by the wealthy) serving to improve the lives of a tiny minority, but not the majority. According to Niall Ferguson, American life expectancy has declined in the past decade in a way we do not see in comparable developed countries. Between 1990 and 2017, drugs and alcohol were responsible for more than 1.3 million American deaths and suicide accounted for about 570,000 deaths.

Chinese GDP per capita has skyrocketed from US$184 to US$12,600 per annum. In 1978, 770 million Chinese existed on the edge of extreme poverty but since 1979, some 800 million have been lifted out of poverty. A foreign visitor to Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Shenzhen will be amazed, especially when contrasting poor infrastructure in Washington DC, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco.[ix]

China’s high-speed rail network spans more than 48,000 km connecting more than 550 Chinese cities with train speeds of up to 350 km/h. Currently the US has only a limited high-speed rail network consisting of Amtrak’s Acela service in the North-east Corridor covering 49.9 miles and Brightline’s project in California expected to be 218 miles long. There are various other plans and proposals for high-speed rail networks in the US, but these have yet to come to fruition.

As China’s global influence grows in much of the world and conditions continue to improve for its people, it seems that confidence in the US is falling and the living standards of the average American citizen is in relative decline.

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

[i]  SCMP, The West just ain't what it used to be, 21 March 2025

[ii] New York Times, Why Cultural Decline in the US is a Threat to Democracy, 2 June 2025

[iii] Foreign Policy, How America Blew its Unipolar Moment, 26 May 2025

[iv] Foreign Policy, The Realist Case for Global Rules, 29 May 2025

[v] Asia Times, Trump may be doing the world a favour by isolating America, 22 May 2025

[vi] Asia Times, Civilisational Multipolarity in a Post-Pax American World, 24 May 2025

[vii] SCMP, China, ASEAN, Gulf States Pledge Solidarity amid US Tariff Tensions, 28 May 2025

[viii] RT News, Russia and the Arab League can Reshape the World Together, 23 May 2025

[ix] American Democracy V Chinese Governance, Kishore Mahbubani, 1 June 2025