AUSTRALIA’S UPS AND DOWNS – AND UNCERTAINTY

Albanese’s “Game Changer” Minerals Deal with the US

During Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to the White House in late October, he achieved essentially everything he wanted, saying “Australia has no greater friend or ally than the United States”. Albanese and President Trump signed an US$8.5 billion agreement (equivalent to AU$13 billion) to supply critical minerals and rare earths to the US. Albanese described the deal as a “game changer” and said it took the partnership with the US to “another level”.

Beijing, which controls more than 85% of global supply, had earlier indicated its intention to exert greater control over global rare earth and mineral supply chains from December 2025. These critical resources are needed to build everything from lithium-ion batteries used in cars and phones to advanced weapons systems.[i] 

Australia’s AUKUS Pact

In September 2021, US President Biden, together with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison, announced the AUKUS Pact to provide Australia with nuclear powered submarines at a  cost of $368 billion. The Australian public and the Australian Parliament were kept in the dark and were not involved in nor had any awareness of the AUKUS plans. Defence Minister Dutton soon announced that “It would be inconceivable that Australia would not join the military action” if the US committed forces to defend Taiwan.

During Albanese’s US visit, President Trump declared that the AUKUS deal was going “full steam ahead” although the Pentagon continues to review the deal and Elbridge Colby, who heads the investigation is openly skeptical of the deal and has demanded that Australia clarify what role they would play if Washington and Beijing were to engage militarily over Taiwan.

Importantly, the US is not required to approve the transfer of the Virginia class submarines to Canberra until the end of 2031 by which time Trump will be long out of office. If the US decides it cannot produce sufficient submarines to meet its needs or that doing so would not be in America’s national interests, that would leave Australia with no submarine capability at all. In the meantime, Australia’s current fleet is already in need of replacement.

Australian defence expert at the Lowy Institute, Sam Roggeveen claims that although the US is still the most powerful military on paper, the days when the US has a clear advantage in the Taiwan Strait are over and China has the largest Navy in the world in terms of ships, the largest missile force in the world, and it has a home ground advantage.[ii]

Australian governments have been reluctant to inform the Australian public of the rationale for AUKUS, which is to support the US in a military conflict involving China. However, in 2022 Biden’s policy chief, Kurt Campbell, remarked that AUKUS was “Getting Australia off the fence” and  “we have them locked in now for the next 40 years”.[iii]

What if the US keeps AUKUS going, but decides only in 2031 not to supply the submarines to Australia?  Australia will be left high and dry.

Surely now (not at some uncertain future date) is the time for Australia to make the bold decision to ditch AUKUS. That would bring enormous benefits to Australia including asserting its sovereignty and independence. The money saved could instead be used in to provide housing for those in need, high-speed rail (in conjunction with China) plus more and better hospitals and schools. Australia would then also be in a position to acquire many more boats suited to patrolling Australia enormous coastline at a fraction of the cost of AUKUS and much, much sooner.

ANZUS Deception

After the formation of NATO in 1949, Australia and New Zealand approached the US and proposed the ANZUS Treaty which came into force in April 1952. The Treaty provides for the three countries to “Consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened in the Pacific and to act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes”. However, the Treaty DOES NOT require the Treaty parties to provide military support to each other. It is nothing more than a Treaty to consult and it is not a guarantee of American support.

Despite that, successive Australian governments speak of ANZUS as if it is a guarantee of American support, but this deception has led Australia to dutifully follow the US into its wars in the hope that America would always respond to a call for help. However, we should remember that notwithstanding repeated pleas from Winston Churchill for American aid during World War II, America failed to act and only entered the war after being attacked by Japan at Pearl Harbor.[iv] 

China Relations

Australia’s relations with China have dramatically improved since Albanese came to office in May 2022. Albanese has been determined to stabilise Australia’s ties with Beijing after the tensions of the Morrison years and has resisted US calls to pre-commit to defending Taiwan from China.

However, China is reported to have reacted furiously to Trump’s assurances given to Albanese about the AUKUS agreement, potentially undoing much of the positive results from Albanese’s recent, widely publicised and successful visit to China.

The Barnaby Joyce Saga

At the 2025 Federal election, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation recorded a primary vote of only 6.4% but since then, support for her Party has surged with polls showing it now sits between 11% and 14%.

In February, the Nationals leader, David Littleproud barred Barnaby Joyce from campaigning outside his electorate and Joyce was relegated to the backbench. Joyce has recently said he would retire from the Nationals and might contest a NSW Senate seat for One Nation. He is reported to be in talks to defect from the Nationals to One Nation which would bolster One Nation’s position as a right-wing alternative to the Coalition.

Hanson has said she would welcome Joyce with open arms. This follows a number of Nationals members in Tamworth defecting to One Nation over the National Party’s “failure to represent their core beliefs”. Hanson is also said to have her eyes on Jacinda Nampijinpa Price, Matt Canavan, Colin Boyce and Llew O’Brien.[v] 

In addition, One Nation is reported to be setting up branches to launch an onslaught on the Nationals in the regions and the Liberals in the cities. Fifty One Nation branches have been set up nationally since the May federal election, with 80 expected by the end of the year.[vi]

The Middle East

Referring to Australia’s recognition of a Palestinian State and Prime Minister Albanese’s claim that he had helped to create the conditions for peace in Gaza, Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister has recently said, “You’re on the wrong side of history when there is a terrorist organisation like Hamas, thanking you for your actions”. She warned that the Israel/Australia relationship would not improve until Australian Jews felt safe to go about their lives without being threatened and abused, and this would require the Australian government to take harsh measures to ensure that the Jewish community in Australia is safe.[vii]

On 9^th Oct, President Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a deal for the release of all Israeli hostages.[viii] Writing in The Times, Gerard Baker observed that “Only Donald Trump could have pulled it off” referring to Trump’s “Towering self-belief in his powers of dealmaking”, and adding that “No Republican president in the last half-century has enjoyed such a level of trust”.[ix]

After a series of anti-Semitic attacks in Australia, the BBC reported that new laws were passed in Australia introducing mandatory jail terms ranging from one to six years for such offences. However, little has been done to apply this legislation to the anti-Semitic conduct and violence regularly occurring in Australia.[x]

On the second anniversary of the 7 October 2023 massacre, Stand4Palestine held a rally in Australia to celebrate that murderous event under the banner of “Glory to Our Martyrs”. This group is linked to Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is banned as a terrorist entity in Britain and in Germany, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and Bangladesh, but seemingly not in Australia.

On the eve of the release of the Israeli hostages, Australian Jews gathered peacefully across the country to celebrate and to show respect. Their dignified conduct was in stark contrast to that of pro-Palestinian activists where violent rants, vilification and anti-Semitic chants have been the order of the day.

 AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

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[i] Many articles in The Australian, 21-22 Oct 25

[ii] Sydney Morning Herald, Trump’s bravado comes at critical time, 25 Oct 25

[iii] AUKUS Anxiety by James Curran, Foreign Affairs, 8 Oct 25

[iv] The National Museum Australia

[v] Multiple reports in SMH, Sky, The Australian and The Conversation between 17 and 20 Oct 25

[vi] SMH, Hanson comes hunting for NSW seats, 23 Oct 25

[vii] The Australian, Israeli Minister rubbishes PM for Gaza Claim, 24 Oct 25

[viii] WSJ, Blessed are the Peacemakers, 9 Oct, 25

[ix] The Times, Only Donald Trump could have pulled this off, 10 Oct 25

[x] BBC, Mandatory Jail for Nazi conduct, 6 Feb 25