CUBA – TRUMP WANTS TO “MAKE A DEAL”

Fidel Castro

Fidel Castro led the Cuban Revolution which brought the overthrow in 1959 of the Cuban President, Batista. Castro assumed military and political power as Cuba’s Prime Minister and continued as head of State for 49 years, until 2008. Under Castro, Cuba became a one-party Communist state.  The United States attempted unsuccessfully to remove Castro by assassination and by economic embargo, as well as the Bay of Pigs Invasion of 1961. To counter US threats, Castro aligned with the Soviet Union and allowed the Soviets to place nuclear weapons in Cuba which led to the “Cuban Missile Crisis” in 1962.

Castro subsequently transferred responsibilities to his brother, Raul Castro who became president in 2008. Fidel Castro died in 2016 aged 90.

A Visit to Cuba

Having visited Cuba as a tourist in 2019, my experience provided valuable insights into this island nation with a population of 11 million. My initial impression was one of decadence and to some extent, third world standards. Even in Havana, where living standards are the highest in Cuba, the average wage was only $30 per month!

In Trinidad we witnessed grand homes which had been abandoned following the 1959 revolution although many have since been restored and some have become museums. In 1988, UNESCO declared Trinidad a heritage site.

We enjoyed discussions with a number of highly educated Cubans. These included a talk by an urban planner about living standards and housing and a discussion with a former Cuban Ambassador dealing with politics and attempts to introduce reforms in Cuba, but without success.

At an art exhibition we watched a polished hip-hop performance by two young women who had given up their professions as social worker and industrial chemist respectively because they could earn more by dancing and receiving $10 for each CD sale of their music and performances. They are not alone. Many highly trained professionals have taken to alternative activities just to survive.

In the magnificent city of Cienfuegos there was a talk by an economist about the state of Cuba’s economy and politics. The model was one of social well-being with free education and government services but, of course with a basic wage of only $30 per month!

Cuba has struggled for at least 100 years against US tyranny, including the US taking control of Guantánamo Bay which was later turned into a prison. The book, Guantánamo describes the tyranny and the efforts by Cuba to take the area back, but to no avail.[i] 

The US Aims to Suffocate Cuba

After the abduction by the US of the Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro on 3 January 2026, the US planned a total oil blockade on Cuba with Trump, callously claiming that Cuba was about to “collapse pretty soon” and warning that Cuba would have to reach an agreement with Washington if it wanted to avoid a humanitarian crisis, but without explaining what concessions the US wanted or expected. The last oil delivery to Cuba was a shipment on 9 January from Mexico which has since halted supplies under US pressure. Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum warned that the US action could “trigger a large-scale humanitarian crisis, directly affecting hospitals, food supplies, and other basic services for the Cuban people”. And yet, bizarrely, Trump officials have denied that US pressure to curb fuel shipments to Cuba is responsible for the crisis![ii]

If the US continues to prevent the flow of oil from Venezuela and pressures Cuba’s other oil producing allies to hold back, the results would be catastrophic, and Cuba would face collapse. There is already not enough fuel for airplanes to refuel in Cuba and by 30 January Cuba was left with enough oil to last only 15 to 20 days. For many Cubans, the crisis means power shortages and a lack of food and medicine. Even then, Cuba refuses to bend to pressure and its Deputy Prime Minister, referring to the challenge said, “We have no doubt we will overcome. We are not going to collapse”.[iii]

The Marco Rubio Story

Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants who moved to the US in 1956. Although Rubio described his parents as exiles fleeing Castro, in fact they immigrated several years before Castro came to power in 1959, well before the Cuban Revolution and the latest version of Rubio’s story confirms that his family did leave Cuba in 1956.[iv]

Marco Rubio is a long-time foe of the Cuban government and has said, “We would love to see regime change” and “It would be of great benefit to the United States if Cuba was no longer governed by an autocratic regime”.

Recently, the Trump administration has been searching for Cuban government insiders who can help push out the government by the year end.[v]

The Obama Intervention

After President Obama restored relations with Cuba, tourism briefly soared but, in 2017 this suffered a setback when President Trump reversed Obama’s efforts.

In 2009, President Barack Obama promised to end restrictions on remittances and family travel by Cuban-Americans and to resume “people-to-people” exchanges. He argued that engagement offered the best hope for promoting “a democratic opening in Cuba” which would be “the foremost objective of our policy”.

However, well into Obama’s second term, US relations with Cuba were not much different from what they had been under Obama’s predecessors. He did embrace “soft power” in the hope of fostering gradual, incremental change, but even his approach required Cuba to dismantle its political and economic systems and replace them with a multiparty electoral democracy.

Obama demanded concessions which the Cuban government was unwilling to make and ultimately he was stuck in the same impasse as his predecessors. Each time a new president took office in Washington, Cuba held out an olive branch to see if the administration might be open to better relations, but to no avail.[vi]

Trump Pressure

On 11 January 2026 Trump announced that, “There will be no more oil or money going to Cuba – zero! I strongly suggest they make a deal before it is too late”. Trump proposed tariffs on any nation which provided oil to Cuba, aiming at Mexico, Brazil, Angola, and Algeria. Cuba’s economic crisis is already severe and a complete energy blockade will push the Cuban economy to breaking point which gives it a strong incentive to “make a deal”.[vii]

Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel is willing to talk to the US government “as equals” saying that any dialogue should respect Cuba’s sovereignty, adding that “To surrender isn’t an option for Cuba. We aren’t in a state of war, but we are preparing ourselves in case we have to move to a state of war”.

Cuba would welcome a commercial engagement with the US. Cuba has significant deposits of nickel and cobalt which would be attractive to the Trump administration given its priority of securing access to strategic minerals. Trump recognises that Cuba’s tourism sector is languishing due to a lack of visitors and resources. Even before he was elected in 2016, Trump had sent representatives to Cuba to explore business opportunities in hotels and golf courses. Although Cuba would be unwilling to make concessions about its political or economic systems, this did not appear to trouble Trump as democracy does not appear to be high on his agenda.

Trump has an aversion to “endless wars” which were fought to spread democracy.  However, according to Trump there were already talks taking place with Cuba to explore an accord to address US security and economic interests while leaving Cuba’s government structure in place. It does make sense for Cuba to explore a deal with the Trump administration provided it  preserves Cuban sovereignty, even at the price of compromise on other issues.[viii]

According to a report by Al Jazeera, on 31 January Trump told reporters, “It doesn’t have to be a humanitarian crisis. I think they probably would come to us and want to make a deal. So that Cuba would be free again”.

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

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[i] Guantánamo, published 2011

[ii] Reports published on RT (Russia) between 23 January and 1 February 2026

[iii] CNN, A Hurricane is coming 30 Jan 26

[iv] NPR, Rubio tries to clarify how his Family left Cuba, 24 Oct 2011

[v] WSJ, Life in Cuba Grinding to a Halt, 10 Feb 26

[vi] Back Channel to Cuba, published 2015 (chapter 9, A New Beginning)

[vii] WSJ, Cuba says it is Ready to Engage with Trump, 5 Feb 26

[viii] Foreign Policy, What a deal between Trump and Cuba might look like, 5 Feb 26