THE GRAVE AND GROWING RISK OF WAR AND NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE

Major Wars in Europe

The Thirty Year War

The Thirty Year War (1618-1648) began in Prague, Bohemia (now, the Czech Republic) and eventually concluded with the Peace of Westphalia. World War I began in Sarajevo, Bosnia in June 1914 with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, leading to Austria-Hungary declaring war on Serbia the following month. World War II began in September 1939 when Germany invaded Poland.

All three wars commenced, and were primarily conducted in Europe.

Germany

After defeating Germany in World War I, the Allied powers forced Germany to disarm with the Treaty of Versailles. Margaret Thatcher later opposed German reunification, warning that this “Would undermine the stability of the whole international situation and could endanger our security”.[i]

In 2024 the NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte declared that Germany’s military must “spend more and produce more” and in February 2026 the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the EU needed to rapidly rearm. He pointed to Russia’s “Violent revisionism” and China’s desire to be “A leader in shaping the world”. Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced, “We are transforming the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army”. Germany plans $1 trillion worth of new defence projects to be completed by 2035 including an increase of combat manpower from 200,000 to 460,000.  German officials have set 2029 as the deadline for the Bundeswehr to be “war-ready” for a potential conflict with Russia .[ii]

Nevertheless, Merz recently said that Ukraine may have to accept territorial losses in a future peace deal with Russia to keep its EU membership hopes alive. However, Zelensky rejects the idea of accepting territorial losses while Moscow has repeatedly stressed that peace must include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from those parts of Donbass which remain under Kiev’s control. Moscow has also said it would not oppose Ukraine joining the EU in those circumstances.[iii]

Japan’s New Militarism

The Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is focused on freeing Tokyo from the yoke of its 1947 pacifist Constitution which bars Japan from fielding a conventional military. She is expected to target Article 9 which renounces war and bars Tokyo from using force in international disputes.

Japan’s government has also lifted restrictions on lethal arms sales imposed under the 1947 Constitution to enable it to sell arms to countries with which Tokyo has defensive agreements. These developments all point to a growing trend of “new militarism” in Japan although Takaichi has said, “There is absolutely no change in our commitment to upholding the path and fundamental principles we have followed as a peace-loving nation for over 80 years”![iv]

The WWII Axis of Fascism is Reforming

Japan and Germany are emerging after 80 years to become fully armed and active. While the German Chancellor positions his country as the central bulwark against Russian invasion, Japan’s Prime Minister positions her country as Asia’s central point of resistance against China. Both Germany and Japan have committed to substantially increasing their defence spending.

While Merz has denounced US President Trump, Takaichi has embraced him. It now appears that the one-time axis of fascism may be emerging as an axis of freedom![v]

There is, however, a countervailing argument. The Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo commemorates those who died in the service of Japan, including during WWII with every Japanese leader paying their respects at the shrine. Imagine if the Germans included the names of Nazi leaders in a permanent memorial in the heart of Berlin to commemorate its war dead. However, Germany has fully acknowledged its war guilt whereas Japan has never done so. A rearmed Japan could potentially become a “revanchist” nation.[vi] 

The Non-Proliferation Treaty

The 1970 Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) guarantees signatories the right to peaceful use of nuclear technology in exchange for signatories accepting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA’s) controls to prevent weaponization. However, the last remaining agreement constraining Russia and US lapsed in February 2026 and every nuclear armed state is currently investing in modernizing its arsenal. These developments have brought the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight than ever before.[vii]

There are 190 members of the NPT including the five countries which exploded nuclear weapons before 1967 – China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US. North Korea joined the NPT but later renounced membership. India, Israel and Pakistan have never joined. The NPT entered into force in 1970, initially for a period of 25 years until 1995. In 1995 the NPT was indefinitely extended and there have since been reviews every five years.

Members agreed in 2000 on practical steps to progress nuclear disarmament. However, nuclear armed states have not only failed to disarm but they are growing, modernizing and threatening to use their arsenals.

The only safe and sustainable future is predicated on the elimination of nuclear weapons, but this can only be achieved through cooperation, negotiation and international law, backed up by verification.[viii]

Iran’s Nuclear Threat

There are deep divisions between the US and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program. While the US has focused on the uranium enrichment path to nuclear weapons it has largely ignored plutonium although plutonium is the preferred route to nuclear weapons by countries such as Iraq and North Korea and there are estimates that Iran has enough plutonium to make more than 200 nuclear weapons. The former White House national security adviser, John Bolton contends that there is no justification for any Iran deal which does not eliminate both plutonium and enriched uranium options and he argues that regime change is the only long-term solution to prevent renewed Iranian nuclear proliferation.[ix]

In June 2025, the US and Israel struck Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities claiming that the 12-day bombing campaign had ended Iran’s nuclear weapons program. However, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, 440 pounds of enriched uranium remain in a tunnel at the Isfahan complex in Iran. Iran’s nuclear program was a primary reason why the US launched strikes on Iran in late February 2026 and it continues to be a major roadblock in peace negotiations. Tehran insists that its nuclear program is for civilian use only and has demanded the right to continue enriching while Washington maintains that any peace deal must include heavy restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program but, Iran is now believed to be only weeks away from building the bomb.[x]

Chernobyl

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) was built in the 1970s on the banks of the Pripyat River near the city of Chernobyl in Ukraine. A city sprang up around the plant with a population of 50,000 who were mainly CNPP personnel and their families.

Water was continuously pumped into the Chernobyl reactor core where it boiled and turned into steam driving the turbines and converting thermal energy into electricity. An experiment was scheduled for 25 April 1986 when operators planned to shut down the pumps which supplied water. However, the reactor core overheated uncontrollably, leading to a chain reaction which cut off the water supply so that the reactor’s water system ruptured. The 130 ton separator drums flew off their mounts and the 500 ton reactor roof was blown off. Nuclear fuel shot into the atmosphere. The amount of radioactive material which escaped was equivalent to 10 Hiroshima bombings.

Many died from radiation sickness. Pripyat was evacuated. The CNPP was bombarded by helicopters to slow down the spread of radioactive particles but the helicopter pilots received lethal radiation doses and those working around the plant continued to receive high doses of radiation. The effects of radiation exposure lingered for decades. Tens of thousands may  have died of radiation related illnesses.[xi]

AI Concerns in Addition to Nuclear Threats

Washington and Beijing are concerned that AI competition could become the arms race of the digital era. The rush to produce more powerful AI models could trigger a crisis which neither Washington nor China could manage. This has given rise to suggestions for an AI hotline for crisis communication. In 2024, following earlier discussions between Biden and  Xi it was agreed that humans, not AI would retain authority over nuclear-launch decisions.

When Henry Kissinger met with Xi in 2023 he requested AI to be on the agenda, believing that the two sides might reach a mutual understanding regarding AI issues. That conversation has since become a continuing channel for AI discussions which have focused on safety and how to design guardrails to ensure AI models would comply with human laws and intentions.[xii]

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

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[i] Foreign Affairs – Europe’s Next Hegemon – 6 February 2026

[ii] Asia Times – Merz rearming Germany – 24 April 2026

[iii] RT – Ukraine may have to cede territory – Merz, 27 April 2026

[iv] Asia Times – Takaichi chooses guns over butter, 21 February 2026

[v] Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) Germany and Japan threatened Democracy, now saving it, 5 May 2026

[vi] South China Morning Post – a resurgent Japan should scare everyone, 3 May 2026

[vii] RT – Chernobyl 2.0: Where nuclear disaster could happen next, 25 April 2026

[viii] The Conversation – Only one way to stop a new nuclear arms race, 27 April 2026

[ix] Wall Street Journal (WSJ) – Negotiation won’t end Iran’s Nuclear threat, 29 April 2026

[x] Foreign Policy – 440 Pounds -30 April 2026

[xi] RT -40 Years after Chernobyl 27 April 2026

[xii] WSJ, US and China to pursue guardrails to prevent AI crisis, 6 May 2026