TAIWAN – PEACEFUL REUNIFICATION?

Cheng Li-wun, KMT Chairperson

 A Short History

Taiwan was annexed by China’s Qing Dynasty in 1683 but was ceded to the Japanese Empire in 1895 after the Qing was defeated in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95. However, after Japan’s defeat in October 1945 it renounced all claims to Taiwan. The Chinese Civil War which ended in 1949 was fought between the Kuomintang (KMT) led by Chiang Kai-shek and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) led by Mao Zedong. The war resulted in the defeat of the KMT which retreated to Taiwan. The Communists founded the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on 1 October 1949. The victorious CCP considers the PRC to be the sole government of China, including Taiwan. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was inaugurated in 1986.

UN Recognition of China

In1971,  the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution 2758 by an overwhelming majority and affirmed that the PRC was the sole government representing the whole of China, including Taiwan. In the following year Australia also recognised the PRC as the sole legal government of China. Taiwan maintained official relations with only 14 (later reduced to 12) out of 193 UN member states. The US acknowledged that there was only one China and in 1979, declared that it would end formal political relations with Taiwan. However, since the 1980s, the US has adopted a policy of “strategic ambiguity” in relation to Taiwan. 

In 2000 the DPP nominee was elected as Taiwan’s first non-KMT President but, in 2008 the KMT won the presidency while campaigning for better ties with the PRC. However, in 2016, the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen became president of Taiwan and pursued independence from China. In 2020, the DPP again won a majority with 54% of the vote  although the KMT was not irrelevant having won 34% of the vote.

In October 2021, China’s President Xi Jinping proclaimed that Chinese unification was a historical mission and although China reserved the right to use force, it would strive to achieve “Peaceful Reunification”. However, although nearly all nations recognised Beijing as the sole representative of China, then US President Joe Biden said the US had a “sacred commitment” to come to Taiwan’s defence in the event of an attack by China. The White House immediately announced that there was no change in the US China policy and the US would continue to pursue “strategic ambiguity”.

Australia’s Role in Taiwan

In 2021, Australia’s Defence Minister, Peter Dutton announced that if the US committed forces to defend Taiwan, it would be “inconceivable” that Australia would not join in the military action. China’s Global Times responded that if so, “It is unimaginable that China won’t carry out a heavy attack on Australia”. The big question for then Prime Minister Morrison and Defence Minister Dutton was how committing forces to support America in a conflict with China was somehow in “Australia’s national interest” and how much blood and treasure would Australia be prepared to sacrifice? The 2021 AUKUS nuclear submarine pact, secretly brought about by Morrison was seen as a major component of any US-led pushback against China. When Australia’s Labor Party came to power in 2022, it adopted  Morrison’s AUKUS deal and the newly appointed Defence Minister Marles stated that in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, Australia could not be a passive bystander.

The New KMT Leader Visits China

Cheng Li-wun was elected chairperson of the KMT in October 2025 taking up her role in November that year. She subsequently accepted an invitation from Xi Jinping to visit China. She planned to lead a 14 member delegation to China on a six-day visit from 7 April 2026, saying that the visit could be a “foundation” for peaceful relations across the Taiwan Strait. Cheng’s visit marks the first time in a decade that a KMT leader has led a delegation to the Chinese mainland. She hoped to make the Taiwan Strait “safe” instead of being seen as one of the world’s “most dangerous places”. Cheng’s visit took place before President Trump’s postponed meeting with Xi Jinping, expected to take place in May 2026.

Ahead of her departure, Cheng observed that “Preserving peace is preserving Taiwan”. However, she acknowledged that any comprehensive reopening of cross-Strait relations would depend upon the KMT returning to power which would have to wait until 2028, confidently adding, “When our party is back in government”.[i] 

Cheng Meets With Xi

Cheng meets with Xi

Cheng met with Chinese President Xi on 10 April. Xi spoke of compatriots on both sides of the Strait and of strengthening exchanges and dialogue on the basis of adhering to the 1992 Consensus. The 1992 Consensus is an unwritten understanding between the CCP and the KMT representing a foundation for cross-Strait dialogue and generally meaning that both sides agreed that there is only “One China”.  Xi who regards the DPP President as a dangerous separatist and has said that he did not rule out the use of force to unify the island with mainland China, stressed that Beijing would “absolutely not tolerate” any independence efforts by Taiwan.

The Xi-Cheng meeting demonstrated at home and abroad that it was possible for China to realise its dream of peaceful unification with Taiwan although Cheng observed that Xi appeared to be taking a patient approach to reunification and had said that resolving the issues would take perseverance and patience. However, after Cheng’s visit, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office unveiled a 10 point economic incentive package to the island which included the full resumption of regular direct flights across the Taiwan Strait and facilitating access for Taiwanese food products to the Chinese market.[ii]

Cheng in turn suggested said the two sides build cooperation to make the peaceful development of both sides of the Strait irreversible. Her visit marked a seismic shift in power within her party where there had not been consensus amongst all KMT leaders. A KMT victory in the 2028 election would be the mandate needed to officially represent the people of Taiwan in negotiations with the mainland. She also said she hoped to invite Xi to visit Taiwan if her party prevailed in 2028.

The Chinese media reported that the meeting underscored Beijing’s efforts to advance peaceful relations “with maximum sincerity and utmost commitment”. At the same time China sent a warning to the DPP that any separatist moves toward “Taiwan independence” would undermine regional stability and were bound to fail.[iii]

Strongly Contested Views

Cheng’s trip aimed to create the opportunity for improved cross Strait relations and to step out of the shadow of “Taiwan independence”. Ahead of her visit, Cheng stressed that by upholding the 1992 Consensus and opposing separatist activities, the KMT wanted to prove to the world that cross-Strait relations didn’t have to face the prospect of war. However, the DPP refuses to recognise the one-China principal and rejects the 1992 Consensus. Nevertheless, China views Taiwan as part of the Chinese nation and argues that all Chinese share kinship and a national identity.[iv]

Japan

According to a report in  Nikkei Asia, the meeting between Cheng and Xi was a meeting between two Chinese “ethno-nationalist” parties who oppose Taiwanese self-determination and tied the annexation of Taiwan to Xi’s “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. By hosting Cheng, Xi signalled that he was capable of managing the Taiwan issue and could deepen doubts in Washington about Taiwan’s resolve.[v]

Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi is said to be pursuing the first ever revision of Japan’s post-World War II pacifist constitution which is likely to be condemned in Beijing. It will inevitably bring back memories of wartime between Japan and China. The relationship between them has been strained since Takaichi said, in November 2025 that an attack on Taiwan would be seen as an “existential crisis situation” for Japan which would allow Japan’s military to take action in self-defence. Even though she said her comments were “hypothetical”, she refused to retract them.[vi] 

Japan’s recent participation in US-Philippine military exercises shows that Tokyo is taking a bigger role in regional groupings which could face off against China. It is the first time that combat ready Japanese troops have been deployed in the Philippines since Japan’s occupation of that country during World War II. Tokyo appears to follow Washington’s regional strategy which urges countries like Japan to do more to deter adversaries and protect the first island chain (islands and archipelagoes along the eastern edge of mainland Asia) which includes denying any Chinese attempt to seize Taiwan.[vii]

“TO BE, OR NOT TO BE, THAT IS THE QUESTION”.[viii]

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

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[i] South China Morning Post (SCMP), Taiwan opposition leader begins journey of peace, 7 April 26

[ii] Nikkei, Xi meets Takaichi as US and Japan watch 10 April 26

[iii] CGTN, Cheng’s visit signals mainland’s sincerity in advancing cross-Strait peace, 11April 26

[iv] CGTN, Cheng visit shatters DPP illusion of relying on US, 7 April 26

[v] Nikkei, KMT and CCP form united front against Taiwan sovereignty 8 April 26

[vi] SCMP, Takaichi putting Japan’s pacifist constitution on chopping block 18 April 26

[vii] SCMP, Military drills show Tokyo’s focus on deterring China 11 April 26

[viii] Hamlet, by William Shakespeare