DONALD TRUMP is “Slippin and Slidin”[i]

April Fool’s Day

While April Fools’ Day falls on 1 April each year, it felt different in 2025 as the world waited anxiously for President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” to fall on 2 April. It was the day when Trump announced the launch of his global tariffs, impacting nearly every nation on earth and spreading anxiety, crashing markets and bringing worldwide fear and consternation. This April Fool’s Day, it turned out, continued throughout the entire month of April, and ongoing.

Tariff Flip-Flops

As the right-wing Spectator magazine wrote on 19 April, while Trump’s trade policies were launched under the slogan “Make America Great Again”, those policies have instead sparked economic disruption, geopolitical instability, and strategic confusion.

On Liberation Day, Trump imposed widespread tariffs with a base rate of 10% on most countries, but a 54% tariff on imports from China.

However, as markets soon cratered and there was a sell-off of US bonds, Trump announced a 90 day pause on most tariffs, but he increased the levies on Chinese imports to 145%. Trump told reporters he was comfortable with the high tariffs on China but claimed that he had a good relationship with President Xi Jinping and believed that something positive would come out of the trade conflict between them. However, China matched Trump’s latest tariff increases with its tariffs on US imports increasing from 84% to 125%, raising the stakes and vowing that it would “fight to the end”. Beijing announced there would be no further hikes on import duties no matter what Washington did next.

On 11 April Trump announced that some electronic products such as smartphones, laptops and machines to make semiconductors, including those produced in China would be exempt, meaning that they would not be subject to the 145% tariffs levied on China. However, Trump quickly reversed his position, saying there was no exemption for these products but instead they were just moving to a different “Tariff bucket”.[ii]

Threats, Intimidation, Coercion

US regional influence cannot be based upon ultimatums and coercion which will ultimately weaken the US around the world.

Trump’s press secretary claimed that 75 countries had reached out to the President and were rewarded with a 90 day pause, but China was excluded and the tariff on Chinese goods were instead hiked to 145%. She also said Trump would be “gracious if China intends to make a deal with the United States, but if China continues to retaliate, it’s not good for China.”[iii] Xi showed no sign of accepting Trump’s invitation to do a deal, with Xi’s spokesman saying China would “never yield” and China’s Finance Ministry saying the US stood to “become a joke in the history of the world economy”. Trump remained confident that the US could make a deal with China, saying he respected Xi and that he had been “a friend of mine for a long period of time, and I think that we’ll end up working out something that’s very good for both countries”.[iv]

China has rejected  Trump’s  repeated claims  that he received a phone call from the Chinese leader with Beijing’s Foreign Ministry rejecting such claims  and referring to them as “fake news”. However, it did say that “If the US truly wants to resolve differences through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and engage in dialogue on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit.”[v]

Trump’s tariff blitz does not differentiate between allies, strategic partners or others. All are equally vulnerable to US demands and China is beginning to look like the “easier roommate”.

As Foreign Affairs reported[vi], US coercion might well backfire. While Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are US partners, they all count on China as their largest trading partner and Trump’s unpredictability was potentially destabilising for their relationships with the US. US ties with Thailand have frayed and China has stepped in to fill that gap. Despite US-Singaporean defence ties, a conflict over Taiwan would pose a dilemma for Singapore’s leadership and a US request to allow American ships, planes and missiles to operate against China from a Singapore base would be a nightmare scenario for Singapore. Vietnam carefully balances relations between China and the US. It has a $123 billion trade surplus with the US but has also been subjected to high tariffs.

At his inauguration, Donald Trump stated emphatically that his proudest legacy would be that of a peacemaker and unifier. In a recent article published on this site we quoted him saying, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into”. It would be nice to think he truly intends to achieve that outcome but it is looking increasingly unlikely and his bullying, threats, intimidation and coercion are likely to bring about the exact opposite.

America’s Diminishing Standing

US global primacy is facing its greatest challenge yet as Trump pursues his trade war. As The Washington Post wrote on 9 April, “It’s one of the ironies of the moment that  President  Donald Trump  and his followers have done the most  to accelerate the arrival of a post-American world”.   Trump’s upheaval has created an opportunity for China which portrays itself as a pillar of stability just when Washington’s conduct becomes increasingly erratic. The US is no longer perceived by many European nations as an ally or friend. In contrast, while America threatens and bullies, Beijing offers the hope of “win-win cooperation” and global prosperity. The language of respectful cooperation is far more appealing than Washington’s demands that nations of the world pay tribute to it.[vii]

Reacting to Trump’s tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney remarked, “Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over. The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over - It ought to be clear that China is not the bogeyman the US made it out to be. In fact, it is the reverse”.[viii]

China is the biggest trading partner for the majority of the world’s nations. Last December, Beijing removed tariffs on imports from the world’s 43 least developed countries including 33 in Africa. By contrast, Trump targeted some of the poorest African states which were already reeling from the sudden halt of USAID with Secretary of State, Marco Rubio saying the US needed to reduce humanitarian assistance in Africa and elsewhere as it was “not the government of the world”. Rubio added that other rich nations including China and India should pick up the tab. Beijing is already stepping up to fill the vacuum.

Trump’s First 100 Days

The chaos emanating from the White House has already reshaped US relationships with both allies and foes. Trump’s trade policy has lurched from empty threats to sweeping tariffs and back to humiliating retreats. Trump’s negotiating strategy revolves around making threats. This approach is not working well.

Nuclear talks have been ongoing between Iran and the US in Oman. Tehran has said it was “giving diplomacy a genuine chance in good faith” and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister has said that if the Americans put aside threats and intimidation, there was a good possibility of reaching  agreement.[ix] A third round of negotiations between the US and Iran took place in late April. While Trump believes a deal with Iran will happen, he has threatened that the US would potentially unleash strikes against Iran’s nuclear program if negotiations fail although he said he preferred to exhaust all diplomatic channels before turning to a military solution.

Although there has been little progress on the Israel-Hamas conflict, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu has specified that Iran must not be allowed to enrich uranium or even retain the capacity to do so. It is not clear exactly how much Netanyahu’s position aligns with that of the US, but for the Israeli Prime Minister, “A bad deal is worse than no deal”.[x]

Before  the commencement  of Trump’s  second term in office  he claimed he would  stop the Russia-Ukraine war in the first 24 hours of his presidency. Despite the bluster, the White House attempts to force a  deal appear to have hit  an impasse and Trump  has said the US would “take a pass” on further Russia-Ukraine talks if the parties continue to “make it very difficult”.

The April Fool

It turns out that the real fool on the recent April Fool’s Day may have been the most powerful person in the world and the leader of what has long been viewed as the world’s most powerful nation – President Donald J. Trump.

To be fair, there is room for another point of view. On 29 April, Ravi Agrawal (Editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy) spoke with Emma Ashford (who is regarded as a “Realist”). Realists believe that “interests trump values” and the US should pursue its own interests rather than spreading democracy or trying to reshape the world in its image. Trump believes in “America First” and is consistent in always pushing for the most that America can get from what he is doing. Trump seeks to  pivot to China (noting that the American people want to avoid a war with China over Taiwan). He also wants to end US involvement in the war in Ukraine and to pull back from the Middle East while remaining strongly supportive of Israel. Trump’s role in killing the liberal international order should not be exaggerated. Much of that shift has already been happening as we move toward a multipolar world. The declining importance of the United Nations has been a trend through several American administrations although Trump is more willing to be a “wrecking ball”.

AUDI ALTERAM PARTEM – HEAR THE OTHER SIDE

[i]  Song by Little Richard – Slippin’ and Slidin’ Peepin’ and Hidin’, 1957

[ii] BBC, China urges US to completely cancel tariffs, 14 April 25

[ii1]  RT, Not good for China to retaliate – White House, 12 April 25

[iv] Sydney morning Herald, US stands to become a joke in the history of the world economy, 11 April 25

[v] South China Morning Post, China rejects Trump claims of Xi Jinping tariff phone call, 28 April 25

[vi]  Foreign Affairs, How Trump's Coercion Could Backfire in Asia, 14 April 25

[vii] The Wall Street Journal, As the US alienates old friends, China is ready to reap the benefits, 11 April 25

[viii] South China Morning Post, The United States, not China, turns out to be the real bogeyman, 6 April 25

[ix] AFP, Iran seeks "real and fair" deal in nuclear talks with US, 12 April 25

[x]  Times of Israel, a bad Iran deal is worse than no deal, 28 April 25